Chance

Chance is a convenient concept of measurement. It is in our heads, entertained by people who recognize that it is impossible to measure connections to a predetermined course. We measure chance mathematically, as in dice. In the toss of a die each side of the die has a one in six chance of coming up on top. It is an abstraction that ignores the circumstances of the position of the die in one's had, the force with which it is thrown and the surface over which the die bounces. We apply chance sociologically when we consider that we meet people fortuitously -- although some newlyweds might claim that the mate they found was predetermined by the heavens.

Concerning chance, Einstein complained the God does not play dice with the cosmos. This was his response to the Heisenberg Uncertainty Theory that was becoming popular among physicists late in his career. Physicists who supported the Heisenberg theory complained. As a scientist Einstein was out of line. He did not know what was on God's mind. Neither did Stephen Hawkins, who applied some humor to his physics and said, "God not only plays dice, he sometimes throws them where they cannot be seen."

Chance in everyday life includes driving a car in traffic. A prudent person recognizes that driving recklessly increases the chance of an accident.

The realities of chance are grasped by the successful gambler. He persists with this grasp rather than allowing himself the kind of wishful thinking that military leaders have been known to employ on occasion -- military leaders being a slightly different kind of gambler. The gambler who remains successful does not play games at the casinos that have odds stacked against him. That is something amateurs and fun seekers do. The successful career gambler keeps the odds in his favor. Decades ago if he played the horses he was one of two percent of the people at the track who made money consistency, doing so without connecting his chances of winning with pure luck or favor from the heavens.

In considering events in history, we tell the story as factually and with as much connectivity as we can, leaving chance alone in our inability to connect to ultimate causes.